According to a recent Bain & Company report, global battery demand is expected to surge to
4,100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030, driven largely by the rapid rise in electric vehicle (EV)
sales. Batteries, being a major cost factor for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and
crucial to product performance, necessitate that OEMs refine their battery strategies to
maintain competitiveness.
Mahadevan Seetharaman, a partner at Bain & Company’s Advanced Manufacturing Services
practice, highlighted the significance of adapting to this shift. He pointed out that the
changing landscape of battery chemistries, particularly within lithium-ion technology, is
shaping OEM product strategies. OEMs are now faced with pivotal decisions about which
battery technologies to choose and whether to develop these batteries internally or through
collaborations.
The report identifies five key trends influencing the EV battery market by 2030:
Continued Lithium-ion Dominance: Lithium-ion batteries will remain the predominant
choice for EVs. While newer technologies such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries show
potential, they are still in developmental stages and are unlikely to have a significant market
impact before 2030.
Leading Cathode Chemistries: Nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium-iron
phosphate (LFP) are expected to lead lithium-ion battery sales. In China, LFP’s dominance is
driven by strong demand for mass-market EVs and established supply chains. However, in
the USA and EU, LFP adoption will be slower due to less developed supply chains and
higher import costs from China.
Enhancements in Cost and Performance: Progress in lithium-ion technology, including
advancements in cathode and anode chemistries, cell design, and AI-driven battery
management systems, will result in reduced costs and enhanced performance.
Emerging Technologies: Solid-state and sodium-ion batteries are anticipated to be the only
emerging technologies to reach commercialization by 2030, offering potential advantages
such as increased energy density and improved safety.
Growth in Battery Recycling: The expansion of EVs will lead to a significant rise in battery
recycling, driven by new global regulations and innovative business models such as battery
rentals.
As the battery market evolves, OEMs need to stay ahead of these trends to effectively
manage the challenges and leverage the opportunities presented by this rapidly transforming
sector.
